In this dashboard we collect the forecasting of quarantined, threatened, healed, and dead people for the Puglia region. Moreover, we collect other useful data and charts. The forecasting are made with a SIR-based model that takes into account:
I: Infected (infected and undetected, however, not yet contagious);
R: Removed (undetected and completely recovered);
C: Contagious (infected and undetected, contagious);
Q: Quarantined (infected and detected)
T: Threatened (hospitalized in a life-threatening or noncritical situation);
H: Healed (completely recovered);
E: Extinct (dead).
The model equation are:
The model is updated regularly, and it takes the last days’ data to predict the next three weeks’ evolution for the quarantined, threatened, healed, and dead people. In the threatened chart, it is plotted an estimation of the maximum capacity of the health system, computed by 10*Number of ICU beds.
The old predictions are also shown to assess the model’s accuracy when the real data are available.
The model is based on the Department of Civil Protection database data and on the Google Mobility Reports. The latter are used to compute the so-called infection rate dynamically.
PS: since the Google Mobility Reports have a 3-10 days delay, the predictions are not updated to the last available report.
The model is a modified version of our previous SIRQTHE model presented in:
Carli, R., Cavone, G., Epicoco, N., Scarabaggio, P., & Dotoli, M. (2020). Model predictive control to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak in a multi-region scenario. Annual Reviews in Control. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arcontrol.2020.09.005